2016 bellwether counties

Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Their concerns are real. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Sumter County, . In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. The divisions were everywhere. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Jeff. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Lets find a coin, and flip it. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. 03:30. What are your thoughts on this article? "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). 12. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Joe Biden (631) Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Free and open-source. Their emotions and decision making process are real. They simply vote on merit. 2023 BBC. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . In their . We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Until this year. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? 11. Bellwether 2016 Arapahoe County. ET. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . The matters that way on their minds are real. We believe this was a mistake. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. (Sorry, not sorry.) Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Hillary Clinton (578) On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? It's happened before. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. In communities . The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY Trump won the other 18 counties. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Enter Donald Trump. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. 3. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Watch Hampton City. 108,000 people. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Outstanding. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. "They followed through the whole four years. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Contributors wanted After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Really stop reading. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Dont simply gloss over this. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. 5. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Do you know this baby? That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Watauga has gone for. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. What science tells us about the afterlife. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. But that's no longer the case. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. These are the bellwether counties. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud.

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